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NBH Likely to Hike by 15bps at Next Meeting (Sep 21)

HUNGARY
  • Hungary's State Debt Agency raised its cap for 2021 foreign-currency bond issuance to EU4.5 billion to account for a potential delay in payments from the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility (BBG).
  • According to Bloomberg, there are market talks that Hungary hired banks for a multicurrency bond issuance, with two global calls coming up later Monday. The planned offerings include USD benchmarks across 10- and 30-year maturities, as well as EUR benchmark seven-year and/or 20-year tranches, said the same bank. The transaction is expected to be launched and priced in the near future, subject to market conditions.
  • Last week, NBH Deputy Governor Virag said that the central bank is still targeting price stability and is determined to curb prices as it poses a threat to the economic recovery.
  • As a reminder, CPI inflation accelerated to 4.9% in August (vs. 4.7% exp.) and up from 4.6% the previous, remaining significantly above the NBH 4-percent upper tolerance band.
  • Even though odds of another 30bps hike at the next meeting on September 21 have increased following the positive surprise in inflation, we think that the NBH will continue its tightening cycle with smaller hikes (15bps) in the coming meetings as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
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