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NBH Rate Decision Coming Up (13:00BST/14:00CET)

HUNGARY
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  • The NBH is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75 to 50bps due to a substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness. Among sell-side, all of the analyst views we have previewed in the following document are expecting a 50bp cut, which would take the base rate to 7.75%.
  • Given a 50bp rate cut at today’s meeting is the overwhelming consensus view, changes to language within the policy statement and in the post-decision press conference (14:00BST/15:00CET) are likely to be more closely watched than the rate decision itself. Among sell-side, there lacks a clear view over the rate path beyond this quarter.
  • Our preview for this afternoon’s decision can be found here.
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  • The NBH is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 75 to 50bps due to a substantial deterioration in global risk sentiment since the previous rate-setting meeting and associated HUF weakness. Among sell-side, all of the analyst views we have previewed in the following document are expecting a 50bp cut, which would take the base rate to 7.75%.
  • Given a 50bp rate cut at today’s meeting is the overwhelming consensus view, changes to language within the policy statement and in the post-decision press conference (14:00BST/15:00CET) are likely to be more closely watched than the rate decision itself. Among sell-side, there lacks a clear view over the rate path beyond this quarter.
  • Our preview for this afternoon’s decision can be found here.