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NBH Sees Raising Rates to 5.90%

HUNGARY
  • At today’s rate decision, the NBH are seen slowing the pace of their tightening cycle with a 50bps hike to 5.9%. The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate after pausing at 6.45% in the past month.
  • As inflation remains partly driven by external factors outside of the monetary policy realm, Hungarian policymakers have been trying to stick with monthly intervention on the 1W depo facility as hiking too aggressively is not likely to have any ST impact on HUF and would also accelerate the economic slowdown. Full MNI preview with summary of sell-side views here: https://marketnews.com/mni-nbh-preview-may-2022-nb...
  • The EU have announced an in-principle agreement to cut over two-thirds of all oil imports from Russia by end-22 (approximately 90% when factoring in separate German and Polish commitments to cut Russian crude supplies), with the agreement temporarily excluding pipeline-delivered oil supplies – a measure installed to placate landlocked Hungary, who have also secured guarantees that it would receive replacement supplies if pipeline flow is disrupted.
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