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NBH Sell-Side Views Post-CPI

HUNGARY
  • JP Morgan say October will be a live meeting for the NBH, and that as long as FX remains relatively stable, they see this opening the door to the first base rate cut. They say fundamental data generally remains quite strong in Hungary and unless there is a big turn in risk, the NBH should be encouraged to cut. JPM say they are now standing on the sidelines whilst they wait to hear the NBH’s intentions.
  • ING say markets are pricing in more of a rate cut in the 75-100bp range at subsequent meetings, but continue to expect a 25bp cut in the base rate at the October meeting with the possibility of a 50bp cut if global conditions calm down by then. They say they expect the market to move rates a bit lower again today, which would lead to a higher EUR/HUF – possibly around 390 today.
  • Commerzbank say the NBH have no scope for key rate cuts in the near future. They say the NBH is aware of monthly price pressures, hence its more cautious approach. If the NBH didn't stand up to inflation and government pressure, the market would punish the forint in a major way, Commerzbank say.
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