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NBH Starts Tightening Cycle (As Expected)

HUNGARY
  • As expected, the NBH rose its benchmark by 30bps for the first time since the March 2020 panic, up to 0.9%, following NBH policymakers' recent hawkish comments.
  • Governor Matolcsy confirmed at a press conference that NBH is starting a tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations. The NBH will consider raising rates at monthly meetings depending on new data; policymakers are very likely to raise rates until CPI stabilises.
  • NBH sees CPI inflation at 4.1% in 2021 (slightly above upper tolerance band at 4%) and 3.1% in 2022.May CPI print remained elevated at 5.1% YoY, significantly higher than NBH 4% upper tolerance band.
  • Next economic data to watch are the unemployment rate on June 29 and PPI inflation on June 30.
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