-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessNBH To Accelerate Pace Amid HUF Weakness
Executive Summary:
- The NBH is likely to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle and hike its policy rate by 100bps on June 28 as HUF weakness keeps supporting inflation expectations.
- The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate on June 30, which would increase the ‘effective’ policy rate to 7.55%.
- Geopolitical uncertainty (Russia 'default') has been weighing on the Hungarian forint, which fell to a new all-time low (vs. EUR) on Monday following the Russia headlines.
Link to full preview:
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is likely to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle and hike its policy rate by 100bps on June 28, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 6.9% (highest since July 2012), as HUF weakness keeps supporting inflation expectations. The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate, which would increase the ‘effective’ policy rate to 7.55%.
Inflationary pressures continue to rise in Hungary, with CPI accelerating to 10.7% in May (vs. 10.4% exp.), up from 9.5% the previous month, diverging significantly from the NBH 4-percent upper tolerance band (figure 1, left frame). Hungary officials reiterated on several occasions that inflation would be running a few ppt higher in the absence of price caps. For instance, PM Orban mentioned earlier this month that CPI inflation would be currently running at 15% / 16% in the absence of caps. As a result, the government has extended the caps on some basic food and fuel prices until October 1, and a cap on retail mortgage interest rates will remain in place until the end of the year. Sell-side analysts continue to revise their year-end inflation forecasts higher, currently estimated at 9.4% (vs. 7.7% in the beginning of May).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.