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NBH To Slow Down Its Tightening Cycle Despite Rising Inflation

HUNGARY
  • Hungary is offering 10-year and 30-year USD-denominated benchmarks as well as EUR-denominated 7-year and/or 20-year tranches, according to a personal familiar with the matter:
    • Initial Price Talk to Hungary's September 2031 USD Bond in UST+130 Bps Area;
    • Initial Price Talk to Hungary's September 2051 USD Bond in UST+180 Bps Area.
  • Even though odds of another 30bps hike at the next meeting on September 21 have increased following the positive surprise in inflation, we think that the NBH will continue its tightening cycle with smaller hikes (15bps) in the coming meetings as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
  • USDHUF has been consolidating lower after failing to break through its 200DMA at 297.50; support to watch on the downside stands at 295, followed by 292. On the topside, first resistance to watch above 297.50 stands at 299.70 (50DMA).
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been retracing lower in the past few days after reaching a local high at 3.09% last week; support to watch on the downside stands at 3%, followed by 2.95%. On the topside, key resistance remains at 3.22%.
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