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NBP 'Doves' Are Losing Power

POLAND
  • The NBP surprised the market again this week and decided to increase its benchmark rate by 75bps to 1.25% (vs. 25bps consensus).
  • Governor Glapinski mentioned during the press conference that a rate hike next month was more likely than not. However, he said in an interview this morning that everything indicates that there is no need for more NBP hikes
  • This week's meeting showed that NBP doves are 'less powerful' than what market expected.
  • This morning, NBP policymaker Ancyparowicz mentioned in an interview that NBP must hike rates if CPI continues to surprise positively.
  • The NBP policy outlook will depend on the next CPI prints; November CPI coming out on November 30 will be key for next meeting in December.

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