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NBP Expected To Keep Status Quo

POLAND
  • NBP expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.1% at its policy meeting today; market could start to take profit on PLN following the sharp appreciation we have seen in the past two months if participants realize that NBP will let inflation run hot in H2.
  • Even though inflation has been rising significantly in recent months mostly driven by the surge in fuel prices, some policymakers aim to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery after a difficult first quarter. However, disagreements over the trajectory of short-term rates have increased in the second quarter as some policymakers are concerned that the inflationary pressures will remain elevated in 2022 and are pushing for a first 15bps hike this summer (i.e. Hardt).
  • This morning, Polisy deputy PM Jaroslaw Gowin said that he sees room for interest rate hike.
  • USDPLN ticks lower this morning and keeps oscillating between 3.64 and 3.70; on the topside, resistance to watch above 3.70 stands at 3.77. On the downside, first support stands at 3.62.
  • Poland 10Y yield ticked slightly lower this morning after finding a local high at 1.86% yesterday; levels to watch on the downside stand at 1.80%, followed by 1.72%. On the topside, key resistance remains at 2%.
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