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NBP Gatnar Favors Symbolic Rate Hike at Next Meeting

POLAND
  • The NBP board remains split over the trajectory of short-term rates.
  • On Friday, we saw that NBP governor Glanpinksi maintained a dovish tone during online press conference, confirming that it is still way too early to start policy normalization as the uncertainty over polish economic recovery remains elevated.
  • Yesterday, MPC member Eryk Lon said that it is safer to wait for policy central bank November projections to decide about the policy outlook. Other policymaker Jerzy Kropiwnicki said in an interview on Biznes24 that the NBP will have a better view of the Polish economy in September, which implies that the NBP will keep interest rates steady until at least the end of Q3 2020, unless the summer inflation projections are significantly reviewed to the upside.
  • This morning, 'dovish' MPC member Gatnar repeated on TV Biznes24 that a 'symbolic' rate rise is needed as it is still not clear if the polish spike in inflation is temporary. Gatnar sees CPI inflation at 5% in June and confirmed that polish fiscal expansion will 'simulate inflation'.
  • Next important economic data to watch is Core CPI coming out on June 16, which is expected to increase to 4% in May (from 3.9% the previous month).
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