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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- As inflationary pressures continue to intensify in the CEE region, a rising number of policymakers have recently expressed their concerned over inflation risks.
- As 7 of the 10 policymakers end their term in Q1 2022, the original base scenario was that policymakers were going to keep interest rates steady until then and let inflation overshoot in the short run.
- However, with CPI inflation prints constantly coming up higher than expected in recent months, some NBP rate settlers have turned hawkish and reviewed their inflation forecast to the upside for 2021 (some expect inflation to average over 4 percent this year, which is significantly higher than the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band).
- MPC member Eugeniusz Gatnar said in an interview today that NBP should hike by 10 to 15bps at next meeting on June 9 to curb inflationary pressures.
- According to him, the MPC can 'no longer afford to watch growing prices passively'; Gatnar expects CPI inflation to reach 5% in June, driven by a variety of factors such as the acceleration in the vaccination campaign, huge fiscal support, PLN weakness, higher services prices (companies compensate for lockdowns).
- We saw that the 2023 breakeven inflation has been constantly rising in the past year, and is currently trading at 3.7%, diverging from either NBP or sell-side estimates (2.9%, blue line).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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