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NBP Gatnar Sees 50bps Hike In December and January

POLAND
  • President Andrzej Duda, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and other ministers meet to discuss the migrant crisis on the border with Belarus (BBG).
  • This morning, NBP Gatnar said (Radio interview) that inflation will continue to grow in the next 2 to 3 months and is expected to peak at or above 8% by the end of 2021. Hence, he sees a 50bps hike in both December and January meetings.
  • Even though governor Glapinski refused to comment if the NBP embarked into a tightening cycle last month when the central bank surprised the market with a 40bps hike (vs. unchanged exp.), it seems likely that the NBP will continue to hike at the next meeting.
  • However, concerns over the economic outlook continues to grow following the inversion of the yield curve recently and the sharp upside retracement in short term rates.
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