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NBP: Governor Adam Glapinski's Presser Eyed This Afternoon 2/2

NBP
  • Pekao write this morning that the hawkish tone of the statement has been moderated, with less mentions of uncertainty around the inflation outlook for the coming quarters. The Council also added a passage noting that it expects a return to the inflation target over the medium term. They stand by their opinion that the MPC will not cut rates this and next year, noting that the new projection pushes the prospect of the return to the inflation target further away.
  • PKO will be looking for the details of Governor Glapinski's assessment of the monetary policy outlook in light of the fact that the return to the inflation target in 2026 (i.e. within the monetary policy horizon) appears to be increasingly likely. The tone of the statement did not change significantly, in their view, which suggests that the new projection did not affect the MPC's views on inflation and the optimal trajectory of monetary policy.
  • Santander expect the tone of today's presser to be similar to June's (i.e. hawkish). They attribute the large revision in the 2025 CPI forecast to an assumption that energy prices would jump after the expiry of "shields" at the end of this year. They note that the statement confirms their expectations that the new projection did not give the Council any significant arguments in favour of changing its stance. They expect rates to stay on hold until around mid-2025.
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