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NBP Governor Turns More Hawkish, Border Tensions Simmer

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski delivered a hawkish message during his press conference on Thursday, guiding that he hopes that conditions would be ripe for rate cuts in mid-2025, as opposed to 1Q2025 mentioned at the previous presser. The official said that inflation will accelerate to just above +5% Y/Y into the year-end and repeatedly flagged readiness to raise rates, should price pressures refuse to cool thereafter. He said that there is currently no discussion of interest-rate cuts and the provabability of such action is close to zero, if the NBP's baseline forecast scenario materialises. According to Glapinski, ECB/Fed cuts would not have much impact on monetary policy decisions in Poland.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski suggested that inflation will "definitely" be below +5% Y/Y at the end of this year, challenging the projection provided by the NBP. He added that widening rate differentials will support the zloty. Domanski also called for "greater European solidarity" in financing the security of EU borders.
  • Poland demanded that Belarus identifies and deports an individual who stabbed a Polish soldier patrolling the border. This comes amid intensifying migration pressure, reportedly routed towards Poland by Russia and Belarus. In a separate case, a couple of soldiers who fired warning shots as a group of migrants stormed the border were arrested, triggering a debate on the relevant procedures.
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