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NBP Hardt Keeps Calling For Policy Normalization

POLAND
  • Last week, the NBP decided to keep its policy rate steady at 0.1% (as expected) and Governor Glapinski confirmed during the press conference the following day that inflationary pressures are expected to be temporary and that the central bank forecasts CPI inflation to decrease significantly in 2022.
  • The NBP Governor also reiterated that CPI is not demand-side driven, but driven by supply shocks (outside of monetary policy control) and that the current rate policy has 'no impact on inflation'.
  • However, three NBP members (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) disagree with that and strongly believe that the central bank should start to gradually normalize its policy to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • NBP member Hardt commented on Twitter that the overshooting inflation is not temporary and requires an MPC response (i.e. rate hike).
  • November meeting remains key for policy outlook. The outcome is still binary for now, with traders hesitant if the NBP will start its tightening cycle then, or at a later date.
  • Angela Merkel will work to resolve the conflict between Poland and the European Union over the application of the rule of law, the outgoing German chancellor said, addressing a rocky relationship after the neighboring country slipped away from the trading bloc mainstream during her 16-year tenure (BBG).
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