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NBP Likely To Hike By 100bps

POLAND

Executive Summary:

  • NBP is likely to hike its policy rate by 100bps today following recent PLN dramatic depreciation
  • The deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict have left CEE currencies vulnerable in recent weeks, which put policymakers in a ‘difficult’ position as depreciating zloty keeps supporting inflation expectations
  • A lower rate hike could ‘disappoint’ market and therefore lead to further PLN weakness

Link to full preview:

MNI Poland CB Preview March 8 .pdf


The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to hike its benchmark rate by 100bps on March 8th to continue its combat against inflation. This move will increase the policy rate to 3.75%, its highest level since February 2013. The deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict have left CEE currencies vulnerable in recent weeks, which put policymakers in a ‘difficult’ position as depreciating zloty keeps supporting inflation expectations.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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