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NBP Likely To Hike By 50bps on January 4

POLAND
  • PFR CEO Pawel Borys mentioned in an interview that bringing inflation down below 4%/5% could take up to 2 years.
  • Borys added that it is still difficult to assess whether the NBP terminal rate will be 2.5%/3% or above.
  • The NBP is likely to prolong its tightening cycle if PLN continues to remain weak against major crosses.
  • Some NBP members and former Polish policymakers have criticized the central bank in its late response to the surge in inflation.
  • The uncertainty over the policy outlook in addition to the growing political tensions with the EU have been weighing on PLN, and therefore supporting inflation expectations.
  • The NBP moved its next rate meeting forward to Jan. 4 from an earlier scheduled Jan. 12, and is is likely to continue its tightening cycle, maintaining the current pace to combat inflation and limit PLN depreciation (50bps hike).
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