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NBP On A Wait And See Approach

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  • Even though three out of 8 policymakers voted for a rate hike in June, the majority of the board is still in favor of keeping interest rates low as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
  • In addition, MPC member Kamil Zubelewicz said last week that 'a rate-increase motion will be passed only if submitted by the governor'.
  • NBP Governor Glapinski once again confirmed this week that it would be 'unreasonable to hike rates now' as he sees risk of slower recovery.
  • This morning, MPC member Lon commented in an article that NBP should favor a wait and see approach.
  • Based on recent NBP policymakers' speeches, the November inflation forecast will be key for policy outlook.
  • This week, traders will focus on July CPI print (preliminary) coming out on July 30, expecting to increase to 4.7% YoY (vs. 4.4% the previous month).

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