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Executive Summary:

  • NBP likely to surprise again with 75bps hike despite rising uncertainty
  • Inflation continued to surprise positively in November, up 7.7% YoY
  • Consensus is pricing in a 50bps hike, which may disappoint the market and therefore lead to some PLN depreciation

Link to full preview:

NBP Dec 8.pdf


The National Bank of Poland Is likely to keep the pace of its tightening cycle and hike the policy rate by 75bps on December 8th to curb the inflationary pressures. Even though the rise in uncertainty over the economic outlook keeps weighing on growth expectations, inflation continued to surprise positively in November, therefore pressuring NBP policymakers to act. Market consensus expects a 50bps hike.



Source: Bloomberg/MNI