NBP Revise 2024 CPI Forecasts Lower, GDP Higher

• Polish central bank sees 2024 CPI at 2.8%-4.3% vs 3.2%-6.2%
• Polish central bank sees 2025 CPI at 2.2%-5% vs 2.2%-5.3%
• Polish central bank sees 2024 GDP growth at 2.7%-4.3% vs 1.9%-3.8%
• Polish central bank sees 2026 GDP growth at 2%-4.5%

Highlights from the policy statement:

• Should higher VAT on food products be restored and energy prices raised, inflation might increase significantly in the second half of 2024.
• The Council judges that the decrease in inflation is supported by the appreciation of the zloty exchange rate, which is consistent with the fundamentals of the Polish economy.
• It is expected that in the coming months annual CPI growth will run at the level consistent with the NBP inflation target.
• In the current round, inflation projection is associated with substantial uncertainty.
• Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity.