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NBP Seen Cutting Rates Again, But Arguments For On-Hold Are Strong

POLAND
  • The NBP rate decision takes focus going forward. Last month, the decision was released at 3.13pm local time (1413UK) and, notably, markets did not receive the usual 15 minute warning from the bank before publication. Governor Glapinski holds his usual post-decision press conference tomorrow at 3pm local time (1400GMT).
  • We believe that it would make sense for the Monetary Policy Council to adopt a wait-and-see stance at this junction, even as the latest CPI report revealed another sizeable decline in headline inflation rate. However, one must consider the policymaker’s perspective – which in this case is clouded by fresh uncertainties. We think that ultimately another 25bp rate cut is marginally more likely than an alternative scenario involving an on-hold decision.
  • Full preview including summary of sell-side views here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/56843/MNI%20NBP%20Preview%20-%20November%202023.pdf

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