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NBP Shifting Towards a November Hike?

POLAND
  • Monday talks between Polish Climate Minister Michal Kurtyka and his Czech counterpart Richard Brabec on Turow lignite mine will be "key" to reaching an agreement in a row that's left Poland facing a daily 500,000 euro ($586,000) fine, Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski says on public Radio 1 (BBG).
  • On September 28, the NBP will hold an extra meeting but is not going to take any policy decisions.
  • On Friday, NBP member Eryk Lon wrote in an article that he is not yet determine how he is going to vote during the November meeting, but he is clearly against actions that could lead to a radical appreciation of the Zloty.
  • NBP 'hawk' Lukasz Hardt told at a seminar in Warsaw also on Friday that CPI inflation projection in November may be higher than the July one and therefore the central bank needs to start a tightening cycle with a 'delicate' 15bps to curb the inflationary pressures. Hardt added that NBP can hike rates without signaling QE Taper.
  • At this stage, there are three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) voting for an 'imminent' rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
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