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NBP Sura Confirms That Early Hike Could Weigh On Recovery

POLAND
  • NBP policymaker Rafal Sura confirmed in an interview today that hiking interest rates by the end of the MPC term could significantly weigh on Poland economic recovery.
  • As a reminder, the terms of seven Council members expire in 2022 Q1, and Governor Glapinski's at end-2022 Q2.
  • Inflation is likely to remain elevated in H2 (exceeding 3.5%), significantly impacted by fuel and administered prices.
  • However, inflation in Poland is supply side-driven and therefore outside of the impact of monetary policy. Hence, hiking rates may not result in inflation falling.
  • The chart below shows that both headline and core CPI are now standing above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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