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NBP Surprises Market By Raising Policy Rate by 40bps

POLAND
  • The NBP decided to increase its benchmark rate by 40bps to 0.5% at today's meeting, following the positive surprise in inflation in recent months.
  • Consensus was still expecting interest rate to remain unchanged while economic recovery is taking place.
  • Governor Glapinski reiterated at an economic forum in Warsaw yesterday that inflation in Poland continues to be driven by external supply shocks that MPC has no control of.
  • As for its CEE peer the CNB (which also surprised market last week with a 75bps hike), NBP has now clearly embarked into a tightening cycle after remaining quiet for the past few months.
  • We have seen recently that the NBP board has been receiving external pressure from former policymakers and Polish PM to start raising rates to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • As a reminder, the NBP held an extra meeting on September 28; even though there were no policy decisions at that meeting, the board could have talked about a potential hike at today's meeting in case CPI inflation continued to surprise positively.
  • PLN has been appreciating sharply following the decision, with USDPLN approaching its yesterday's low at 3.94. Next support to watch on the downside stands at 3.92.
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