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NBP To Keep Policy Rate On Hold at 0.1% Tomorrow

POLAND
  • At 11pm (London time), Parliament's Interior Affairs committee discusses situation on Polish-Belarus border on closed session (BBG). As a reminder, Poland declared a state of emergency in two regions bordering Belarus on Thursday following a surge of illegal migration that Warsaw has blamed on its neighbours (Reuters).
  • NBP Governor Glapinski reiterated that tightening monetary policy would be 'risky' given the elevated uncertainty over the economic recovery. However, the central bank is not ignoring the fast acceleration in inflation and will not let it become permanent, implying that the September and October inflation print will be key for the policy outlook.
  • Forward rates have been rising in the past week following the positive surprise in inflation (in August) before consolidating by 10bps yesterday; FRA 5Mx8M is currently trading 48bps above the Wibor 3M, implying that policymakers would hike twice by February 2022.
  • Odds for a November rate hike have been rising, which could be the start of a gradual tightening.
  • Next NBP meeting is on September 8; policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold. Glapinski will hold a press conference on Thursday.
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