Near Stagnant Growth in Q3

Norwegian mainland GDP for Q3 slightly undershot consensus and continued to signal subdued growth in the economy.

• Q3 mainland GDP was 0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.2% cons, 0.0% prior). Norges Bank had expected +0.3% Q/Q in their September Monetary Policy Report.
• While the September monthly indicator rose 0.3% M/M (vs 0.0% cons), both July and August figures were revised downwards (by 0.2pp each).
• The press release notes that high inflation and interest rates have reduced consumption and housing construction, which has somewhat been "counteracted by the rise in oil investments". Despite this, the overall monthly GDP fell -2.3% M/M in September and -0.5% Q/Q in Q3, likely pulled down by the natural gas production impacts of the large gas maintenance outages seen in September.
• There continues to be a divergence between Goods and Services consumption, with the former falling -0.2% Q/Q and the latter rising +0.3% Q/Q (driven by increases in package holidays, hotels and restaurant services).
• Gross mainland investment fell -3.8% Q/Q in Q3, mainly due to falling housing investment, while the trade balance contributed negatively on the quarter.
• NOK saw a brief bout of weakness following the release but EURNOK now trades back at pre-data levels. Domestic focus in the Scandis now turns to the Riksbank decision at 0830GMT/0930CET.