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Near-Term Fed Rates Await FOMC Steer, Sept Cut Fully Priced

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged from Friday’s close for the next three meetings but further out edge 1bp lower for Dec and Jan in light of a broader FI bid as they consolidate last week’s slide.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 28.5bp Sep, 45bp Nov, 69bp Dec and 87bp Jan.
  • The limited move for near-term meetings is to be expected ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Today sees a particularly thin docket although labor-focused releases over the next two days including JOLTS and the Q2 ECI could still drive gyrations in the interim.
  • See the MNI preview at the below link with a summary of analyst expectations to follow later today: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65477/FedPrevJul2024.pdf

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