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Near-Term Fed Rates Firm But With Offsetting Decline Come Year End

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have continued to steadily push higher for the June FOMC through most of the US session, after earlier briefly pausing and dipping on Conference Board consumer confidence (stronger than expected but with revisions altering the trajectory and a softer labor differential ahead of Friday’s payrolls report) and a miss for the Dallas Fed mfg index.
  • It now prices 17bp of hikes for Jun and a cumulative 27bp for July (up 1bp and 2bp respectively since Friday’s close).
  • It’s not a clean lift across subsequent meetings though, at least compared to Friday, with the 37bp of cuts from the July terminal to 4.98% at year-end still down -1.5bp.

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