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Near-Term FOMC Pricing Surprisingly Resilient To Softer CPI Details

STIR
  • The ‘small’ 0.2% for core CPI and soft details (near 0% M/M for core services ex housing) has seen no real impact on July 26 pricing, with the market still eager to price +21.5bps.
  • Near-term meetings also prove surprisingly resilient, with the cumulative +25bp to Sep and +30bp to the terminal in Nov down just -1.5bp and -3bp since the release, albeit having softened ahead of time.
  • The greater reaction has been some cuts being priced back in, with now almost 70bps seen from terminal to Jun’24.
  • * There has been some paring of earlier declines in implied rates, possibly on the drag from airfares and maybe Barkin ('24) with BACKING OFF TOO SOON WOULD REQUIRE FED TO DO EVEN MORE - BBG

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