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Near Term Gasoil Spreads Soften but Curve Remains in Backwardation

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Near term Gasoil curve backwardation continues to soften following the end to worker strikes at French refineries last week. The prompt spread has fallen from a peak of 95$/mt at the end of October down to 14.5$/mt.

  • Longer dated spreads however remain supported with concerns over Russia oil supplies following the EU sanctions and with very low global distillate inventories. Data last week showed US distillate stocks 18.5% below normal and EU ARA gasoil stocks 27.4% below. The Dec22-Dec23 spread rallied from a low of 81$/mt during September and has maintain just below 200$/mt since.
  • European refiners are still looking for increased crude supplies from the Middle East to replace Russia feedstock crude. The latest estimates from Bloomberg data showed Europe still receiving approximately 760kbpd of seaborne crude from Russia at the end of October.
    • Gasoil NOV 22-DEC 22 down -2.75$/mt at 15.75$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 22-JAN 23 down -1.5$/mt at 16.25$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 22-DEC 23 down -4.5$/mt at 191.75$/mt

Source: Bloomberg

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Near term Gasoil curve backwardation continues to soften following the end to worker strikes at French refineries last week. The prompt spread has fallen from a peak of 95$/mt at the end of October down to 14.5$/mt.

  • Longer dated spreads however remain supported with concerns over Russia oil supplies following the EU sanctions and with very low global distillate inventories. Data last week showed US distillate stocks 18.5% below normal and EU ARA gasoil stocks 27.4% below. The Dec22-Dec23 spread rallied from a low of 81$/mt during September and has maintain just below 200$/mt since.
  • European refiners are still looking for increased crude supplies from the Middle East to replace Russia feedstock crude. The latest estimates from Bloomberg data showed Europe still receiving approximately 760kbpd of seaborne crude from Russia at the end of October.
    • Gasoil NOV 22-DEC 22 down -2.75$/mt at 15.75$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 22-JAN 23 down -1.5$/mt at 16.25$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 22-DEC 23 down -4.5$/mt at 191.75$/mt