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Near-Term Tightening Highest In Post-Payrolls Period (But Still Low)

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen cumulative tightening pushes above where it was earlier today at +5.5bp to 5.39% for 2bp higher since pre-Powell and at the highest its been since payrolls last Friday.
  • The timing of the first cut from current levels tips into July from June although it didn’t take much having been 26bp cumulative priced for June ahead of Powell (it’s now 21bp for June, 35bp for July).
  • Cuts from the January peak to Dec’24 sit at 84bp from 88bp prior and 87bp pre-payrolls.

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