Near Term TTF Prices Rally on Supply Concern and Brief Cooler Spell

TTF continues to recover ground today following a drop to a low of 26.09€/MWh earlier today with a brief cold spell in Europe over this weekend and supply uncertainty with lower US exports and competition for LNG supplies.

• Prices are still low enough to encourage spot interest from Asian buyers while Thailand is looking for additional shipments to meet higher power demand according to Bloomberg. Brazil is also considering expanding supply of natural gas to the country.
• The number of US LNG export cargoes fell last week to 21 from 26 the previous week according to the EIA amid the ongoing curtailment to operations at the Freeport terminal.
• US LNG exports are still slightly more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer period according to BNEF. The US netback to Asia for April is 6.62$/mmbtu and to Europe is 6.09$/mmbtu.
• A net gain in front month prices this month has driven the Apr24 - Sum 24 spread to the narrowest since early Jan at -0.1€MWh this week. High end of winter season storage levels should help to ease the pressure on restocking over the summer ahead of next winter.
• The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread is today around -4.0€/MWh although had closed to -3.4€/MWh earlier this week. The Sum24-Sum25 spread has also eased wider in recent days to -2.35€/MWh.
  • TTF APR 24 up 4.7% at 27.66€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 4.3% at 27.76€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 3.9% at 31.76€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 3.6% at 30.1€/MWh