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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
Eurozone flash Q3 GDP was -0.1% Q/Q and +0.1% Y/Y, missing consensus for a 0.0% Q/Q (flat) reading - vs 0.2% in Q2.
- (Bloomberg and other outlets are reporting an upward revision to Q2 from 0.1%, but the figure had already been revised earlier this month and Eurostat doesn't update prior data in the flash estimate so this shouldn't have been a surprise).
- This came despite in-line/above consensus readings for a few countries that already reported, including Germany. For the member states where data is available, quarterly GDP was negative for 7 countries, including Germany, Austria and Portugal. On a Y/Y basis, Ireland saw the largest fall at -4.7% Y/Y (vs -0.7% prior).
- Current consensus for Q4 is 0.0% Q/Q implying that they euro area might barely avoid a technical recession in H2. And the overall figure looks to have been tipped a bit lower by Ireland's biggest Y/Y contraction since 2009 and -1.8% Q/Q (likely a distortion as with so many Eurozone-wide measures - and Ireland's stats office notes it's due to "multinational dominated sectors").
- But early signs (PMI, econ sentiment) point to a sluggish start at best to Q4.
Source: Eurostat
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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