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Net Long USD Specs Surged To January Highs

FOREX
  • Net long specs on the US Dollar have been rising in recent weeks, increasing by 19K to a total of 136.4K contracts in the week ended March 29, their highest level since January.
  • It was surprising to see that the positioning of speculative investors fell during most of the first quarter despite the surge in geopolitical uncertainty and the dollar appreciation.
  • Momentum on the US Dollar has paused in the past month, with the DXY index oscillating between 97.70 and 99.42.
  • A break above the 99.40 resistance would open the door for a move up to 99.73, which represents the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 – 102.98 range.
  • On the downside, support below 97.70 (61.8% Fibo) stands at 97.3170 (50DMA).
  • On Friday, economic data showed that March NFP came in below expectations at 431K (vs. 490K exp.), the lowest jobs increase since last September, while wages came in ‘hot’ (+5.6% YoY increase vs. 5.5% exp.).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

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