Netanyahu Short Of Maj, Kingmakers Crucial, Political Paralysis Likely

The 23 March legislative election, the fourth in two years, delivered another fragmented result that could set Israel on the path to a fifth election in the coming months.

• Neither the bloc of parties supportive of incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nor the opposition bloc won a clear majority in the 120-member Knesset (see chart below). Instead, two parties that have yet to declare their allegiance will sit as kingmakers, either to another Netanyahu gov't, an opposition-led coalition, or if no agreement can be reached then they could force another snap election.

Source: Israeli Election Commission, MNI

• Focus will inevitably turn to the two kingmaker parties, Yamina and Ra'am.
  • Yamina is a right-wing Zionist, economic liberal party led by former economy and defence minister Naftali Bennett. His conditions for supporting Netanyahu are likely to involve a rotating premiership in a similar deal to that struck between Netanyahu and B&W leader Benny Gantz in 2020.
  • Ra'am is an Islamist party that split from the Arab-interest Joint List shortly before the election. While the party that advocates a two-state solution and increased rights for Palestinians seems an unlikely supporter of a right-wing Zionist Netanyahu gov't, Ra'am is the most hardline socially conservative of the Arab parties, and could support the Netanyahu bloc on the basis of avoiding a socially liberal coalition coming in under Yesh Atid and its leader Yair Lapid.
• Over the coming hours, days, and weeks the parties will engage in political horse-trading to try to cobble together a workable coalition, meaning political paralysis. This state could extend for several months should no workable gov't prove forthcoming.
• In terms of Israel's foreign relations, this could dampen the prospect of any further normalisation of ties with GCC countries as the political focus turns inwards. It could also see Israel's voice marginalised should talks begin on the Iran nuclear deal, the annulment of which Netanyahu has vociferously called for since its implementation in 2016.