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NETHERLANDS: Coalition Holds Crisis Meeting After NSC Minister Resigns

NETHERLANDS
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The four-party governing coalition is holding crisis meetings at the PM's residence, the Catshuis, following the resignation of Benefits Minister Nora Achahbar. Achahbar resigned amid 'dissatisfaction with the integration discussion within the government' following the highly-publicised violence on the streets of Amsterdam last week. Achachbar hails from the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party, the third-largest in the coalition behind the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). 

  • AD reports that "Sources at the New Social Contract (NSC) party say that the harsh and insulting texts of cabinet members about migrants and Islam were the reason for Achahbar [who is of Moroccan descent], to resign." There is speculation that more NSC ministers could also quit. In the event the party pulls out of the coalition, it would mean PM Dick Schoof's gov't losing its majority in the House of Representatives.
  • However, this would be a risky prospect for the NSC. A collapse of the coalition could bring about a snap general election. Opinion polling shows the NSC has seen its support plummet in the year since the last election, from garnering 20% in November 2023 to recording 3-4% in early-mid November 2024.
  • Conversely, the PVV of Geert Wilders would likely welcome a snap election given the party holds a wide lead in opinion polling and would be on course to cement its position as the Netherlands' largest party. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

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The four-party governing coalition is holding crisis meetings at the PM's residence, the Catshuis, following the resignation of Benefits Minister Nora Achahbar. Achahbar resigned amid 'dissatisfaction with the integration discussion within the government' following the highly-publicised violence on the streets of Amsterdam last week. Achachbar hails from the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party, the third-largest in the coalition behind the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). 

  • AD reports that "Sources at the New Social Contract (NSC) party say that the harsh and insulting texts of cabinet members about migrants and Islam were the reason for Achahbar [who is of Moroccan descent], to resign." There is speculation that more NSC ministers could also quit. In the event the party pulls out of the coalition, it would mean PM Dick Schoof's gov't losing its majority in the House of Representatives.
  • However, this would be a risky prospect for the NSC. A collapse of the coalition could bring about a snap general election. Opinion polling shows the NSC has seen its support plummet in the year since the last election, from garnering 20% in November 2023 to recording 3-4% in early-mid November 2024.
  • Conversely, the PVV of Geert Wilders would likely welcome a snap election given the party holds a wide lead in opinion polling and would be on course to cement its position as the Netherlands' largest party. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less