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Netherlands funding plan due: Upside risks to E40bln DSL target

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
  • The DSTA will release its quarterly outlook today, including potential updates to its issuance target for the year and the calendar for Q3 auctions.
  • We note that the Netherlands has already issued E30.0bln (in nominal terms) and E27.5bln (in cash terms) of its 2024 total intended DSL - and decided against holding an auction next Tuesday (25 June) "based on its current funding need."
  • The DSTA also noted that "The cancellation also permits the DSTA to have further flexibility in the second half of the year."
  • Note that Bloomberg reported yesterday that due to the ending of talks for a full sales of TenneT Germany, "the Netherlands won’t see €1.6 billion in receipts that have been budgeted for 2024."
  • In the last quarter update (on 22 March) the funding needs were increased, largely due to an E13.1bln need for the loan facility to TenneT. However, this only impacted bill issuance targets, there was no impact on the "around €40 billion" expected of DSL issuance.
  • Given there is only E10bln of funding expected for the entirety of H2, there is a risk that the issuance target for DSLs is nudged up a little to e.g. E45bln, but we think the base case of the market is that the target remains unchanged.
  • We look for no more Dutch DDAs this year and we expect one conventional auction in July and a further 1-2 auctions in September.
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