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New 16Y High for 10Y Yld: 4.5436%

US TSYS
  • Treasury yields climbed to new multi-year highs late Monday, 30YY 4.6604% (+.1359) - highest since late June 2011, while 10YY overtook last Fri's 16Y high of 4.5064% to 4.5436 (+.1099).
  • Treasury curves bear steepened on the day, finishing near highs after the bell (3M10Y +12.286 at -94.341, 2Y10Y +8.861 at -59.173).
  • Fed indexes weaker than expected: Chicago Fed national activity index came in weaker than expected in August at -0.16 (cons +0.10) after a downward revised +0.07 (initial +0.12). The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fared slightly worse than expected in September as it dipped to -18.0 (cons -14) from -17.2.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said U.S. interest rates are near their peak and soon the debate will shift to how long they'll stay there. "It's certainly possible" rates won't need to go any higher, he said. "Pretty soon the question is going to stop being how much more are they going to raise and it's going to transform into how long do we need to hold rates at this kind of restricted level to feel convinced that we're back on this path to 2%."
  • Meanwhile, MN Fed Kashkari will attend a moderated discussion at Wharton later this evening at 1800ET, livestreamed.
  • On another note, next week's scheduled market data (NFP on Oct 6) may be postponed if lawmakers are unable to come up with stopgap funding measures to keep the US Government open past this Friday. Stay tuned.
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