New Congress Leaders Give Bolsonaro Greater But Not Unlimited Control-AQ

Brian Winter at Americas Quarterly tweets a thread on the impact of elections of new Congressional presidents:

• "25 months after becoming president, Jair Bolsonaro is more powerful than ever, after "allies" take control of Congress. Opposition is lost, divided & in love with old names & unpopular ideas like impeachment. But there's nuance."
• "First, the Congressional votes themselves [...] Actual margins: 57-21 & 302-145. True show of force for Bolsonaro & the Centrão bloc that he "aligned with" in mid-2020 [...] Outgoing House speaker Rodrigo Maia leaves humiliated, joining others who have tried to confront Bolsonaro & failed: Moro, Frota, Hasselman, Mandetta, Witzel, etc. Bolsonaro has talent for destroying his enemies. People notice."
• "What does it mean? Unless there's major deterioration in crisis [...] impeachment probably off the table for rest of Bolsonaro's term. But this is not a loyal, automatic majority either. To quote a friend: "The Centrao cannot be bought, it can only be rented". Power in Brasilia will continue to be diffuse. Bolsonaro has shown no ability to build power structures that are actually his (note he still has no party!)."
• "Congress & judiciary reasonably independent. Good for those who worry about him having too much control...Brazil's opposition: What a mess. There is a strong anti-Bolsonaro vote out there, but unlike US there's no primary process to force unity around 1 figure for 2022. Maybe putting impeachment (never realistic) off table forces new ideas & leadership. But: "I have doubts"."