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New Cycle Highs For Front End Yields As Rate Path Climbs

US TSYS
  • Tsys cheapen with a tightly packed 4.5-5bp climb across the curve as yields maintain the post-CPI trend drift higher and the 2YY and 5YY post new cycle and in turn fresh post-2007 and post-2008 highs.
  • The 2YY is supported by both a further climb in terminal rate expectations and an end-2023 rate closing in on 4%, whilst 2s10s is little changed at -37.5bps, still off lows closer to -50bps and potentially reflecting views of higher structural inflation.
  • TYZ2 maintains a bearish outlook at 114-19+ (-11+ ticks), close to yesterday’s low of 114-17 under which sits a key support at 114-06 (Jun 14 low).
  • Data: Retail sales, Empire & Philly, Jobless Claims, Int’l prices, IP and Inventories
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $50B 4W, $45B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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