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New Dovish Extreme For 2024 ECB Cuts

STIR

ECB-dated OIS cut pricing increases to a new dovish extreme of almost 162bps, as dovish spillovers from the UK November CPI print feed through.

  • The first full cut remains priced through the April meeting, with 35bps priced at typing.
  • The Euribor strip holds firmer, sitting +1.5 to +6.0 ticks higher through the Blues, with Whites and Reds leading.
  • There is no notable Eurozone data today, but ECB's Lane speaks at 14:00 GMT on the "The Euro Area Outlook" in Dublin, which includes a Q&A. The speech comes after a notable disinflation in the ECB's underlying inflation metrics (see MNI FI/FX Bullets at 15:10GMT yesterday for more) following yesterday's final November HICP data.
    Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jan-243.891-1.00
    Mar-243.785-11.7
    Apr-243.556-34.5
    Jun-243.213-68.8
    Jul-242.900-100.1
    Sep-242.659-124.2
    Oct-242.467-143.4
    Dec-242.285-161.6
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

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