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New Highs For Mar'22 Hike Probability, Core PCE Next

FED FUNDS FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures have ground out fresh highs for the likelihood of a Mar’22 hike, rising from ~40% prior to last week’s FOMC decision to 63% now.
  • Implied cumulative hikes by Dec’22 have also approached highs but are slightly below the peak seen immediately post the FOMC decision. At 2.9 hikes priced, they are up from 2.6 earlier this week and back at levels just prior to the emergence of Omicron.
  • This is roughly in line with the FOMC dot plot median of 3 hikes for 2022, with the market increasingly seeing potential to hike in the same month that asset purchases will end, helped by Waller’s comments last week.
  • The core PCE deflator for Nov is up next at 0830ET, with broad consensus for +0.4% M/M after a similarly strong Oct, although 8 of 49 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg look for 0.5%.
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