MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Taking Job Gains With Grain Of Salt

BRIEF: EU Says Engaging With China Over EV Trade Dispute

MNI BRIEF: Draghi Calls For Tariffs, Subsidies Against China

MNI BRIEF: China May M2 Slows To Record Low Again

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

US Treasury Auction Calendar

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 590; OIL RIGS 488; GAS RIGS 98

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia, Belgium, BoE APF Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

New Highs For Mar'22 Hike Probability, Core PCE Next

FED FUNDS FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures have ground out fresh highs for the likelihood of a Mar’22 hike, rising from ~40% prior to last week’s FOMC decision to 63% now.
  • Implied cumulative hikes by Dec’22 have also approached highs but are slightly below the peak seen immediately post the FOMC decision. At 2.9 hikes priced, they are up from 2.6 earlier this week and back at levels just prior to the emergence of Omicron.
  • This is roughly in line with the FOMC dot plot median of 3 hikes for 2022, with the market increasingly seeing potential to hike in the same month that asset purchases will end, helped by Waller’s comments last week.
  • The core PCE deflator for Nov is up next at 0830ET, with broad consensus for +0.4% M/M after a similarly strong Oct, although 8 of 49 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg look for 0.5%.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.