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New Home Sales Lower Than Expected Whilst Supply Still Elevated

US DATA
  • New home sales were softer than expected in January at 661k (cons 684k) after a downward revised 651k (initial 664k).
  • It mean new sales increased 1.5% M/M in Jan after 7.2% in Dec, but the two monthly gains don’t yet reverse a cumulative 13% decline in the prior two months.
  • There were some wild moves regionally that makes it hard to get a sense of underlying trends: northeast (72%, smallest segment), west (39%), midwest (8%), south (-16%, easily largest segment).
  • Months of supply was unchanged on the month at 8.3 and remains below the 8.9 recent peak seen in Nov, but is still high compared to the 5.7-7.0 seen in January’s in 2017-19 for a pre-pandemic comparison.
  • That relative supply is helping keep downward pressure on the noisy median price series, -2.6% Y/Y in January after -13.8% Y/Y in Dec.

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