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New Home Sales Slide With Existing, But Solid Price Growth

US DATA
  • New home sales slid -8.1% M/M in June (cons -5.4%) after a downward revised +6.3% (initially +10.7%), hitting a two-year low in the process and only just above the pandemic low.
  • It adds to last week’s surprising -5.4% slide in existing sales in the continued reaction to the surge in mortgage rates, but separate measures of house prices continued to growth strongly.
  • They are only for May but the FHFA and S&P CoreLogic 20-city measures increased 1.4% M/M and 1.3% M/M respectively, only slightly softer than lofty expectations.
  • The strength in house prices should continue to filter through to imputed rents in CPI, a category that is clearly already running extremely hot and has been a large driver behind the last two months of upside CPI surprises.

New home sales (white) and 30Y Freddie Mac mortgage rate (green)Source: Bloomberg

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