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New Home Sales Surprisingly Jump With Regional Divergence

US DATA
  • New home sales were far stronger than expected in March, jumping +9.6% M/M (cons -1.3).
  • It follows a notably downward revised -3.9% in Feb (initial +1.1%) but that in turn followed an upward revised +4.2% in Jan (initial +1.8%), the broad upshot of which has left new home sales with a clearer upward trend in recent months off lows from Jun-Sep’22.
  • The latest increase wasn't broad-based though, led by a 171% spike in the small north-east category with west sales also +30% on the month, whilst sales in the largest southern region fell -5.5%.
  • The increase in new home sales has led the more recent recovery in both existing home sales and building permits, with existing home sales still almost 20% below pre-pandemic levels vs new home sales which have now closed the gap.

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