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New Lows Before New Highs?

GOLD
  • In the past few weeks, the total amount of negative-yielding debt, which could be seen as a measure of market stress, has been falling, despite the recent rise in price volatility.
  • The amount of debt trading in negative territory fell by nearly $2tr since its high of $16.8tr reached on August 5 to $15tr.
  • The chat below shows that negative-yielding debt has been a major driver of gold prices in the past 5 years (in addition to real rates).
  • Hence, while some investors expect gold prices to skyrocket amid rising uncertainty and falling growth expectations, a temporary fall in the total amount of negative-yielding debt combined with a stronger USD (as Fed taper nears) could weigh on the precious metal in the near term.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI


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