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New Post-Payrolls Lows, 10Y Auction To Headline Thin Docket

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have recently set fresh post-payrolls lows in a continued pushback on prior recessionary fears seen in the aftermath of a dovish report but one that had some notable caveats.
  • Cash yields are 3.7-5.1bp higher on the day, led by 2s.
  • 2Y yields have met some resistance between 4.02-4.03% (a latest high of 4.030%) as they remain below the ~4.12% seen pre-payrolls.
  • 10Y yields of 3.93% meanwhile are back at pre-payrolls levels courtesy of real yields now sitting ~6bp higher.
  • TYU4 has seen a session low of 113-01+ having also essentially closed the post-payrolls gap via 115-03+. It’s the latest step closer to support 112-21 (Aug 2 low). Volumes of 460k are still elevated but less so than overnight sessions for the prior two days.
  • Headlines and sentiment should drive today’s session until the 10Y auction. It comes after yesterday’s relatively well-received 3Y and is followed by the 30Y tomorrow.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (1200ET)
  • Fedspeak: Collins to Rhode Island (1200ET – no remarks expected)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction - 91282CLF6 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
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