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US DATA: New York State Manufacturer Optimism Moderates

US DATA
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  • The Empire manufacturing survey started the December round of regional Fed surveys on a softer than expected note, printing 0.2 (cons 10.0) after a surprisingly strong 31.2 in November.
  • It’s hard to call this a miss though, being a survey with a standard deviation of 25pts for the monthly change since 2022.
  • Within this, new orders shifted from 28 to 6.1 but are still healthy compared to the heavily negative figures from earlier in 2024.
  • The six-month ahead general outlook has been less volatile however, and here it offered a second month of moderation to 24.6. That’s the lowest since Aug via October’s cycle high of 38.7.
  • It's close to the 2019 average and indeed the press release characterizes this outlook as “fairly optimistic”.
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  • The Empire manufacturing survey started the December round of regional Fed surveys on a softer than expected note, printing 0.2 (cons 10.0) after a surprisingly strong 31.2 in November.
  • It’s hard to call this a miss though, being a survey with a standard deviation of 25pts for the monthly change since 2022.
  • Within this, new orders shifted from 28 to 6.1 but are still healthy compared to the heavily negative figures from earlier in 2024.
  • The six-month ahead general outlook has been less volatile however, and here it offered a second month of moderation to 24.6. That’s the lowest since Aug via October’s cycle high of 38.7.
  • It's close to the 2019 average and indeed the press release characterizes this outlook as “fairly optimistic”.