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Free AccessNew YTD Lows as Rate Differentials Weigh
- GBP strength persists in recent trade, helping tilt EUR/GBP to new YTD lows and close the gap with next key support at the 0.8547 December low. Technically worth noting that the 50- and 200-dmas are on the cusp of forming a death cross in the coming sessions, signalling short-term downward momentum.
- Move initially triggered by the wave of risk-on that followed China-US trade headlines (recall a piece in The Times yesterday: "US-China trade war would hurt Britain most, says leaked analysis" - so stands to reason that GBP would firm on smoother ties), with background support from the BRC shop price index overnight - while headline price rises accelerated, food inflation eased, driven by staples including milk and fish.
- Rate differentials also coming into play for the cross, with the BoE/ECB market implied peak rate spread rising to new extremes Tuesday - see chart below:
Figure 1: BoE/ECB Peak Rate Differential
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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