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NEW ZEALAND: Business Survey Signals Stabilisation & Lower Price Expectations

NEW ZEALAND
APACNew ZealandBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The November ANZ business survey was generally positive on both growth and inflation. Not only did the activity outlook rise a further 2 points to 48.0, the highest in over 10 years, but activity compared to a year ago continued its gradual improvement. Also inflation expectations fell further. With cost, pricing and wage expectations all moderating, the RBNZ should remain confident that “core inflation is converging” on the target mid-point. This and its focus on growth should mean further easing at the start of 2025.

  • Rate cuts and expectations of more seem to be driving a stabilisation in business intentions and an improvement in the outlook supported by close to record easy credit conditions. Business confidence moderated slightly to 64.9, but still close to October’s 65.7, highest since March 2014. The outlook is pointing to a pickup in Q4 GDP growth.

NZ GDP y/y% vs ANZ business activity outlook

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The November ANZ business survey was generally positive on both growth and inflation. Not only did the activity outlook rise a further 2 points to 48.0, the highest in over 10 years, but activity compared to a year ago continued its gradual improvement. Also inflation expectations fell further. With cost, pricing and wage expectations all moderating, the RBNZ should remain confident that “core inflation is converging” on the target mid-point. This and its focus on growth should mean further easing at the start of 2025.

  • Rate cuts and expectations of more seem to be driving a stabilisation in business intentions and an improvement in the outlook supported by close to record easy credit conditions. Business confidence moderated slightly to 64.9, but still close to October’s 65.7, highest since March 2014. The outlook is pointing to a pickup in Q4 GDP growth.

NZ GDP y/y% vs ANZ business activity outlook

Keep reading...Show less